YX 3559 · EWR → STL

departs 2:24 PM ET · arrives 4:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 2pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3559 · EWR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?