Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3579
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3579 · IAD → CHS
departs 10:18 PM ET · arrives 12:23 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CHS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CHS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CHS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.