Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3584 · EWR → GSP
departs 4:20 PM ET · arrives 6:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
4pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Visibility down to 1.25 mi forecast at GSP that day
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.