Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 3604 · EWR → GSP
departs 8:56 AM ET · arrives 11:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
EWR is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.