Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3617 · YYZ → ORD
departs 10:15 AM EDT · arrives 11:09 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.