Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3640
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3640 · RIC → ORD
departs 10:36 AM ET · arrives 11:49 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
RIC is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 10,414 ft Visibility 8.71429 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.