YX 3664 · IAD → PWM

departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 7:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PWM?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3664 · IAD → PWM

Odds over time

How late will it get to PWM?