Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3682
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 3682 · EWR → PIT
departs 9:01 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.75 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.