YX 3687 · MCI → IAD

departs 5:52 PM CT · arrives 9:32 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3687 · MCI → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?