Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 419 LANDED 8:35 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

YX 419 · ORD → MSN

took off 8:03 PM CT · landed 8:35 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 419 · ORD → MSN

Odds over time