Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 4411 · PHL → BOS
departs 4:38 PM ET · arrives 6:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 57%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BOS that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.