YX 4424 · GRR → ORD

departs 6:02 AM ET · arrives 6:14 AM CT

Your aircraft is N423YX (E75L), coming in as RPA4416 from ORD: landed 12:34 AM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4424 · GRR → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?