YX 4492 · ORD → SDF

departs 7:02 AM CT · arrives 9:31 AM ET

Your aircraft is N423YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4424 from GRR: landed 6:04 AM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4492 · ORD → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?