YX 4493 · JFK → BOS

took off 8:35 PM ET · landed 9:22 PM ET (scheduled 8:02 PM ET → 9:18 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BOS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at BOS that day

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4493 · JFK → BOS

Odds over time

How late did it get to BOS?