Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4613
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 4613 · IND → PHL
departs 5:37 AM ET · arrives 7:53 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 5h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 2%
Thu 10/29 6%
Fri 10/30 8%
Sat 10/31 6%
Sun 11/1 5%
Mon 11/2 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
2%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
2%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.