YX 4614 · BUF → LGA

took off 6:07 AM ET · landed 7:01 AM ET (scheduled 6:02 AM ET → 7:42 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LGA is busy at that time

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

BUF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4614 · BUF → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?