Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4681
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
YX 4681 · SDF → PHL
departs 12:38 PM ET · arrives 2:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.