YX 4728 · LGA → STL

took off 7:15 PM ET · landed 8:25 PM CT (scheduled 6:59 PM ET → 8:55 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4728 · LGA → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?