YX 5842 · LGA → SYR

departs 10:03 AM ET · arrives 11:23 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SYR more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SYR?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SYR (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5842 · LGA → SYR

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYR?