Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 745
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
YX 745 · ORD → RDU
departs 9:20 AM CT · arrives 12:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −13 pts in 24h
−13 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 10,314 ft Visibility 8.85714 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.