Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ZIPAIR · FLIGHT ZG 16 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

ZG 16 · NRT → IAH

departs 11:41 AM JST · arrives 8:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

ZG 16 · NRT → IAH

Odds over time