Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 2711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Today
5D 2711 · ATL → QRO
departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 5:51 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at QRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at QRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to QRO?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
QRO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.