Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 3021 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

9K 3021 · MVY → BOS

departs 1:40 PM ET · arrives 2:09 PM ET

Your aircraft is C402 (C402), coming in as 9K 615 from JFK: still at JFK, due off about 12:20 PM ET, 17 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MVY

Weather at each end

MVY (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 3021 · MVY → BOS

Odds over time