Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 2414
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 2414 · OGG → MUE
departs 2:46 PM HT · arrives 3:59 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MUE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MUE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MUE?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MUE that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MUE usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MUE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
MUE (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.