Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 409
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 409 · DFW → HRO
departs 4:07 PM CT · arrives 6:22 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at HRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRO (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.