Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 419 · DFW → HOT
departs 9:36 AM CT · arrives 11:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOT more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HOT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9am departures from DFW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.