Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 501
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 501 · OGG → KOA
departs 6:46 AM HT · arrives 7:48 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Wed 10/28
Sun 11/1 4%
Mon 11/2 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at KOA that day
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
6am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Arrivals into KOA at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
KOA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.