Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 503
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 503 · OGG → KOA
departs 5:00 PM HT · arrives 6:09 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at KOA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to KOA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at KOA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
OGG usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
KOA (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.