Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 550
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 550 · HNL → MKK
departs 6:42 PM HT · arrives 7:36 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.