Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 553 · LNY → HNL
departs 12:26 PM HT · arrives 1:04 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
12pm departures from LNY are usually not late
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.74 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.