Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 575 · MKK → HNL
departs 7:49 AM HT · arrives 8:46 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.