9X 604 · OGG → HNM

departs 7:56 AM HT · arrives 8:42 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at HNM more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNM?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.9 in of rain forecast at HNM that day

↑ 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ 7am departures from OGG are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into HNM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precip3.57 in

HNM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 604 · OGG → HNM

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNM?