Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 707
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 707 · MKK → HNL
departs 7:17 AM HT · arrives 8:18 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↓
Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.