Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 744
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 744 · MKK → OGG
departs 12:06 PM HT · arrives 1:06 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
12pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.