Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 765 · HNL → MKK
departs 2:36 PM HT · arrives 3:30 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.