Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 821 · MKK → HNL
departs 6:57 PM HT · arrives 8:11 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.