Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 858 · HNL → MKK
departs 10:28 AM HT · arrives 11:18 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 13%
Fri 10/30 11%
Sun 11/1 9%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.