Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 877
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 877 · OGG → MKK
departs 10:16 AM HT · arrives 11:16 AM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28
Fri 10/30 7%
Sat 10/31 7%
Mon 11/2 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±8 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.56 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.