Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 931
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 931 · MKK → HNL
departs 1:36 PM HT · arrives 2:37 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±6 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
1pm departures from MKK are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 3.49 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 1.40 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.