Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 956 · HNL → MKK
departs 3:27 PM HT · arrives 3:55 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 3.0 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.