AA 123 · DFW → OGG

took off 11:26 AM CT · expected to land 2:19 PM HT (scheduled 11:20 AM CT → 2:10 PM HT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

LIVE

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1.5 mi, 2.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 123 · DFW → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?