Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1782 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 1782 · ORD → MCO

departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 3:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±9 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 32 kt forecast at MCO that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1782 · ORD → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?