AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

took off 10:23 AM CT · landed 11:23 AM PT (scheduled 10:14 AM CT → 11:54 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SBA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1822 · DFW → SBA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SBA?