tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1992 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 1992 · PHL → JAX

departs 9:00 PM ET · arrives 11:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
15% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.9d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to JAX?

  1. On time or early
    85%
  2. 15–30 min late
    6%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.