tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2016 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 2016 · RNO → PHX

departs 4:10 PM PT · arrives 6:12 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.8d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    82%
  2. 15–30 min late
    7%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    6%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    2%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.