Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2052 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 2052 · ORD → TPA

departs 8:52 AM CT · arrives 12:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2052 · ORD → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?