Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2102 LANDED 8:17 PM CT, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2102 · PHX → DFW

took off 4:30 PM MT · landed 8:17 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2102 · PHX → DFW

Odds over time