Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2121 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2121 · PHX → DTW

departs 4:05 PM MT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2121 · PHX → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?