Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2229 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2229 · DFW → DSM

departs 5:01 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DSM?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

DSM (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling4,914 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2229 · DFW → DSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to DSM?