Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2387 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2387 · SFO → DFW

departs 2:03 PM PT · arrives 7:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±5 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2387 · SFO → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?